What Will The Auto Service Department Look Like In Ten Years
one Geopolitics: 'Rivals will take greater risks confronting the US'
No residuum of power lasts forever. Just a century ago, London was the heart of the world. Britain bestrode the globe similar a colossus and only those with strong fretfulness (or weak judgment) dared claiming the Pax Britannica.
That, of class, is all history, but the Pax Americana that has taken shape since 1989 is just every bit vulnerable to historical change. In the 1910s, the rising ability and wealth of Federal republic of germany and America splintered the Pax Britannica; in the 2010s, east Asia will practise the same to the Pax Americana.
The 21st century will see technological change on an astonishing scale. It may even transform what it means to be homo. But in the curt term – the next twenty years – the world volition still be dominated by the doings of nation-states and the central issue will be the rise of the east.
Past 2030, the globe will be more complicated, divided between a broad American sphere of influence in Europe, the Center E and southern asia, and a Chinese sphere in east Asia and Africa. Even inside its own sphere, the US will face new challenges from onetime peripheries. The big, educated populations of Poland, Turkey, Brazil and their neighbours will come into their own and Russia volition continue its revival.
Nevertheless, America will probably remain the world's major power. The critics who wrote off the US during the depression of the 1930s and the stagflation of the 1970s lived to see information technology bounce back to defeat the Nazis in the 1940s and the Soviets in the 1980s. America's financial issues will surely deepen through the 2010s, but the 2020s could bring another Roosevelt or Reagan.
A hundred years ago, as Britain's dominance eroded, rivals, particularly Frg, were emboldened to take ever-greater risks. The same volition happen as American power erodes in the 2010s-20s. In 1999, for case, Russia would never accept dared attack a neighbour such equally Georgia merely in 2009 it took just such a gamble.
The danger of such an adventure sparking a swell power war in the 2010s is probably low; in the 2020s, it will be much greater.
The virtually serious threats will arise in the vortex of instability that stretches from Africa to central Asia. Well-nigh of the earth's poorest people alive here; climate change is wreaking its worst damage here; nuclear weapons are proliferating fastest here; and even in 2030, the great powers will still seek much of their free energy here.
Hither, the risk of Sino-American conflict volition be greatest and here the rest of ability will be decided.
Ian Morris, professor of history at Stanford University and the author of Why the West Rules – For Now (Profile Books)
2 The U.k. economic system: 'The pop defection against bankers will become incommunicable to resist'
Information technology volition be a second fiscal crisis in the 2010s – probably sooner than later – that will testify to be the remaking of Great britain. Confronted past a second trillion-pound bank bailout in less than 10 years, information technology volition be impossible for the Urban center and wider banking arrangement to resist reform. The popular revolt confronting bankers, their current business model in which neglect of the real economy is embedded and the scale of their bonuses – all to be underwritten by bailouts from taxpayers – will become irresistible. The consistent rebalancing of the British economic system, already underway, will intensify. Britain, in thrall to finance since 1945, volition break gratis – spearheading a second Industrial Revolution.
In 2035, in that location is thus a good prospect that U.k. will be the near populous (our nascence rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country, the primal state in a reconfigured EU. Our leading universities volition become powerhouses of innovation, world centres in exploiting the approaching barrage of scientific and technological breakthroughs. A reformed financial system will allow British entrepreneurs to get the committed financial backing they need, becoming the capitalist leaders in Europe. And, after a century of trying, Great britain will at final build itself a system for developing apprentices and technicians that is no longer the Cinderella of the education system.
It volition not be plain sailing. Massive political turbulence in Red china and its conflict with the US volition define part of the next 25 years – and there will be a menstruum when the globe trading and financial organisation retreats from openness.
How far beggar-my-neighbour competitive devaluations and protection volition develop is hard to predict, but protectionist trends are in that location for all to come across. Commodity prices volition get much higher and there will be shortages of key minerals, energy, water and some basic foodstuffs.
The paradox is that this will exist proficient news for Britain. It will forcefulness the country to re-appoint with the economy and to build a matrix of institutions that will support innovation and investment, rather equally information technology did between 1931 and 1950. New Labour began this process tremulously in its terminal year in office; the coalition regime is following through. These will be lean years for the traditional Conservative right, but whether information technology will be a liberal I Nation Tory political party, ongoing coalition governments or the Labour party that volition be the political beneficiary is non yet sure.
The central point is that those 20 years in the middle of the 20th century witnessed cracking industrial creativity and an unsung economical renaissance until the country fell progressively nether the stultifying grip of the City of London. My gauge is that the same, against a similarly turbulent global background, is nigh to happen again. My caveat is if the Urban center remains strong, in which case economical reject and social segmentation volition escalate.
Will Hutton, executive vice-chair of the Work Foundation and an Observer columnist
3 Global evolution: 'A vaccine will rid the world of Aids'
Inside 25 years, the globe will reach many major successes in tackling the diseases of the poor.
Certainly, nosotros will be polio-free and probably volition have been for more than a decade. The fight to eradicate polio represents i of the greatest achievements in global health to date. Information technology has mobilised millions of volunteers, staged mass immunisation campaigns and helped to strengthen the health systems of depression-income countries. Today, nosotros accept eliminated 99% of the polio in the world and eradication is well within reach.
Vaccines that foreclose diseases such equally measles and rotavirus, currently available in rich countries, will too become affordable and readily available in developing countries. Since it was founded 10 years ago, the Gavi Alliance, a global partnership that funds expanded immunisation in poor countries, has helped prevent more than 5 meg deaths. Information technology is easy to imagine that in 25 years this work volition have been expanded to salve millions more lives by making life-saving vaccines available all over the earth.
I also expect to meet major strides in new areas. A rapid bespeak-of-intendance diagnostic test – coupled with a faster-acting handling regimen – will so fundamentally modify the way we treat tuberculosis that we can begin planning an elimination campaign.
We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the signal where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035. We will as well take constructive means for preventing Aids infection, including a vaccine. With the encouraging results of the RV144 Aids vaccine trial in Thailand, nosotros now know that an Aids vaccine is possible. We must build on these and promising results on other means of preventing HIV infection to aid rid the world of the threat of Aids.
Tachi Yamada, president of the global health programme at the Beak & Melinda Gates Foundation
4 Energy: 'Returning to a world that relies on muscle power is not an option'
Providing sufficient food, water and energy to permit everyone to lead decent lives is an enormous challenge. Free energy is a means, not an stop, just a necessary ways. With 6.7 billion people on the planet, more than 50% living in large conurbations, and these numbers expected to rise to more than 9 billion and 80% subsequently in the century, returning to a globe that relies on human and brute muscle power is not an pick.
The challenge is to provide sufficient energy while reducing reliance on fossil fuels, which today supply 80% of our free energy (in decreasing order of importance, the rest comes from burning biomass and waste matter, hydro, nuclear and, finally, other renewables, which together contribute less than 1%). Reducing use of fossil fuels is necessary both to avoid serious climate alter and in anticipation of a time when scarcity makes them prohibitively expensive.
It will exist extremely difficult. An International Energy Agency scenario that assumes the implementation of all agreed national policies and announced commitments to save free energy and reduce the use of fossil fuels projects a 35% increase in energy consumption in the next 25 years, with fossil fuels upwards 24%. This is near entirely due to consumption in developing countries where living standards are, happily, rising and the population is increasing rapidly.
This scenario, which assumes major increases in nuclear, hydro and air current power, obviously does not make it enough and will break down if, every bit many expect, oil production (which is assumed to increase fifteen%) peaks in much less than 25 years. We need to go much farther in reducing demand, through meliorate design and changes in lifestyles, increasing efficiency and improving and deploying all viable culling energy sources. It won't exist inexpensive. And in the post-fossil-fuel era it won't be sufficient without major contributions from solar energy (necessitating cost reductions and improved free energy storage and transmission) and/or nuclear fission (pregnant fast breeder and/or thorium reactors when uranium somewhen becomes scarce) and/or fusion (which is enormously bonny in principle simply won't become a reliable source of free energy until at least the middle of the century).
Disappointingly, with the nowadays charge per unit of investment in developing and deploying new free energy sources, the earth will still be powered mainly by fossil fuels in 25 years and volition not be prepared to practice without them.
Chris Llewellyn Smith is a onetime director general of Cern and chair of Iter, the world fusion project, he works on energy issues at Oxford University
5 Advertising: 'All sorts of things will but be sold in plainly packages'
If I'd been writing this five years ago, it would have been all about engineering science: the cyberspace, the fragmentation of media, mobile phones, social tools allowing consumers to regain power at the expense of corporations, all that sort of stuff. And all these things are of import and will alter how advertising works.
But information technology'due south becoming clear that what'll actually change advertising will be how we chronicle to it and what we're prepared to permit it exercise. After all, when you await at advert from the past the bones techniques haven't inverse; what seems startlingly conflicting are the attitudes information technology was acceptable to portray and the products you lot were immune to annunciate.
In 25 years, I bet at that place'll be many products we'll exist allowed to purchase but not meet advertised – the things the government will determine we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environs but that they tin can't muster the political will to ban outright. And then, we'll end up with all sorts of products in plain packaging with the product name in a generic typeface – as the regime is currently discussing for cigarettes.
But it won't stop at that place. We'll likewise exist nudged into renegotiating the relationship between order and advertising, because over the adjacent few years we're going to be interrupted by advertising similar never before. Video screens are getting so inexpensive and disposable that they'll be plastered everywhere we go. And they'll have plenty intelligence and connectivity that they'll come across our faces, exercise a quick search on Facebook to find out who we are and direct a message at us based on our purchasing history.
At least, that'll be the idea. Information technology probably won't piece of work very well and when it does piece of work it'll probably bulldoze us mad. Marketing geniuses are working on this stuff right now, but not all of them recognise that being allowed to do this kind of thing depends on societal consent – push the intrusion also far and people will push back.
Society in one case did a deal accepting advertising because it seemed occasionally useful and interesting and because it paid for lots of journalism and entertainment. It's not necessarily going to pay for those things for much longer so nosotros might commencement questioning whether we want to live in a Bract Runner world brought to us by Cillit Bang.
Russell Davies, head of planning at the advertizement bureau Ogilvy and Mather and a columnist for the magazines Campaign and Wired
6 Neuroscience: 'We'll be able to plug information streams straight into the cortex'
By 2030, we are likely to take adult no-frills brain-motorcar interfaces, assuasive the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits. I sincerely hope we will not even so be interfacing with computers via keyboards, one forlorn letter at a time.
I'd like to imagine nosotros'll have robots to practise our bidding. But I predicted that twenty years ago, when I was a sanguine boy leaving Star Wars, and the smartest robot we have now is the Roomba vacuum cleaner. So I won't be surprised if I'm wrong in another 25 years. Artificial intelligence has proved itself an unexpectedly hard trouble.
Mayhap nosotros will empathize what'southward happening when we immerse our heads into the colourful dark blender of dreams. We volition accept cracked the secret of human being memory by realising that it was never nigh storing things, but nigh the relationships between things.
Volition we accept reached the singularity – the betoken at which computers surpass human intelligence and perhaps give us our comeuppance? We'll probably be able to plug data streams direct into the cortex for those who want information technology badly enough to risk the surgery. There volition exist smart drugs to enhance learning and memory and a flourishing black market among aggressive students to obtain them.
Having lain to rest the nature-nurture dichotomy at that signal, we volition have a molecular agreement of the way in which cultural narratives work their way into brain tissue and of individual susceptibility to those stories.
And then there'due south the mystery of consciousness. Will we finally have a framework that allows us to interpret the mechanical pieces and parts into private, subjective experience? As it stands now, we don't even know what such a framework could await similar ("conduct the 2 here and that equals the experience of tasting cinnamon").
That line of enquiry will pb us to face up the question of whether we can reproduce consciousness by replicating the exact structure of the encephalon – say, with zeros and ones, or beer cans and tennis balls. If this theory of materialism turns out to exist correct, and then we volition be well on our way to downloading our brains into computers, allowing united states of america to live forever in The Matrix.
Just if materialism is incorrect, that would be equally interesting: perhaps brains are more than like radios that receive an as-however-undiscovered force. The one thing nosotros can be certain of is this: no matter how wacky the predictions we make today, they will look tame in the foreign light of the futurity.
David Eagleman, neuroscientist and writer
7 Physics: 'Within a decade, we'll know what nighttime thing is'
The next 25 years will encounter fundamental advances in our understanding of the underlying structure of matter and of the universe. At the moment, we have successful descriptions of both, only we accept open questions. For example, why practice particles of matter have mass and what is the dark matter that provides most of the matter in the universe?
I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be constitute within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson, and believe that the answer to the dark affair question volition be found within a decade.
Key roles in answering these questions will be made by experiments at Cern's Big Hadron Collider, which started operations in earnest concluding yr and is expected to run for most of the next 20 years; others will be played past astrophysical searches for dark matter and cosmological observations such as those from the European Space Bureau's Planck satellite.
Many theoretical proposals for answering these questions invoke new principles in physics, such every bit the existence of additional dimensions of space or a "supersymmetry" betwixt the constituents of affair and the forces betwixt them, and nosotros will discover whether these ideas are useful for physics. Both these ideas play roles in string theory, the all-time estimate we have for a complete theory of all the fundamental forces including gravity.
Volition string theory exist pinned downwards within 20 years? My crystal brawl is cloudy on this point, but I am sure that we physicists volition have an exciting time trying to find out.
John Ellis, theoretical physicist at Cern and King's College London
8 Food: 'Russia will become a global food superpower'
When experts talk most the coming food security crisis, the date they fixate upon is 2030. Past then, our numbers will exist nudging 9 billion and nosotros will need to be producing 50% more food than we are now.
By the eye of that decade, therefore, nosotros will either all be starving, and fighting wars over resource, or our global food supply will take changed radically. The bitter reality is that it will probably exist a mixture of both.
Developed countries such as the UK are likely, for the almost role, to have attempted to pull up the drawbridge, increasing national product and reducing our reliance on imports.
In response to increasing prices, some of us may well accept reduced our consumption of meat, the raising of which is a notoriously inefficient use of grain. This will probably create a nutrient underclass, surviving on a carb- and fatty-heavy diet, while those with money scarf the protein.
The developing world, meanwhile, will work to bridge the food gap by embracing the promise of biotechnology which the centre classes in the developed world volition have assumed that they had the luxury to reject.
In truth, any of the imported grain that we do consume will come up from genetically modified crops. Equally climate change lays waste to the productive fields of southern Europe and north Africa, more water-efficient strains of corn, wheat and barley will be pressed into service; likewise, to the north, Russia volition go a global nutrient superpower every bit the same climate change opens up the once frozen and massive Siberian prairie to food production.
The consensus now is that the planet does take the wherewithal to feed that huge number of people. Information technology's simply that some people in the west may observe the methods used to do so unappetising.
Jay Rayner, TV presenter and the Observer'due south food critic
nine Nanotechnology: 'Privacy volition be a quaint obsession'
Xx years ago, Don Eigler, a scientist working for IBM in California, wrote out the logo of his employer in messages made of private atoms. This feat was a grapheme of the potential of the new field of nanotechnology, which promises to rebuild matter atom by atom, molecule by molecule, and to give us unprecedented ability over the material world.
Some, like the futurist Ray Kurzweil, predict that nanotechnology will lead to a revolution, assuasive us to make any kind of product for virtually nothing; to take computers so powerful that they will surpass human intelligence; and to lead to a new kind of medicine on a sub-cellular level that will allow u.s. to abolish ageing and expiry.
I don't think that Kurzweil's "technological singularity" – a dream of scientific transcendence that echoes older visions of religious apocalypse – volition happen. Some stubborn physics stands between us and "the rapture of the nerds". But nanotechnology will lead to some genuinely transformative applications.
New ways of making solar cells very cheaply on a very large scale offer us the best hope we have for providing low-carbon free energy on a big enough scale to satisfy the needs of a growing earth population aspiring to the prosperity we're used to in the adult world.
We'll learn more than about intervening in our biology at the sub-cellular level and this nano-medicine will requite us new hope of overcoming really difficult and intractable diseases, such as Alzheimer's, that will increasingly agonize our population as it ages.
The data engineering science that drives your mobile phone or laptop is already operating at the nanoscale. Some other 25 years of development will lead u.s.a. to a new world of cheap and ubiquitous computing, in which privacy will exist a quaint obsession of our grandparents.
Nanotechnology is a different type of science, respecting none of the conventional boundaries between disciplines and unashamedly focused on applications rather than fundamental understanding.
Given the huge resources being directed towards nanotechnology in China and its neighbours, this may also exist the starting time major technology of the mod era that is predominantly developed exterior the US and Europe.
Richard Jones, pro-vice-chancellor for enquiry and innovation at the Academy of Sheffield
10 Gaming: 'Nosotros'll play games to solve problems'
In the last decade, in the United states of america and Europe but particularly in s-east asia, we have witnessed a flight into virtual worlds, with people playing games such as 2d Life. But over the course of the next 25 years, that flight will be successfully reversed, not because we're going to spend less time playing games, but because games and virtual worlds are going to go more closely connected to reality.
There volition be games where the action is influenced past what happens in reality; and in that location volition be games that use sensors so that nosotros tin play them out in the real globe – a game in which your avatar is your domestic dog, which wears a game collar that measures how fast it'due south running and whether or not it'south wagging its tail, for example, where you play with your dog to advance the narrative, equally opposed to playing with a virtual graphic symbol. I tin imagine more concrete action games, too, and these might exist used to harness free energy – peripherals like a dance pad that actually captures energy from your dancing on top of information technology.
So there will exist problem-solving games: there are already a lot of games in which scientists endeavor to teach gamers real science – how to build proteins to cure cancer, for example. One surprising trend in gaming is that gamers today prefer, on average, iii to one to play branch games rather than competitive games. Now, this is actually interesting; if you think nearly the history of games, there really weren't co-operative games until this latest generation of video games. In every game you can think of – card games, chess, sport – everybody plays to win. Simply now nosotros'll see increasing collaboration, people playing games together to solve bug while they're enjoying themselves.
There are besides studies on how games work on our minds and our cerebral capabilities, and a lot of science suggests you can use games to treat depression, anxiety and attention-deficit disorder. Making games that are both fun and serve a social purpose isn't piece of cake – a lot of innovation will be required – only gaming will become increasingly integrated into gild.
Jane McGonigal, director of games research & development at the Institute for the Future in California and writer of Reality Is Cleaved: Why Games Make Usa Happy and How They Tin Assistance The states Change the World (Penguin)
11 Web/internet: 'Quantum computing is the time to come'
The open web created by idealist geeks, hippies and academics, who believed in the complimentary and generative flow of cognition, is being overrun by a spider web that is safer, more controlled and commercial, created by problem-solving pragmatists.
Henry Ford worked out how to make money by making products people wanted to own and buy for themselves. Marker Zuckerberg and Steve Jobs are working out how to make money from assuasive people to share, on their terms.
Facebook and Apple are spawning cloud commercialism, in which consumers allow companies to manage data, media, ideas, money, software, tools and preferences on their behalf, belongings everything in vast, floating clouds of shared data. We volition exist invited to trade invasions into our privacy – companies knowing ever more than about our lives – for a more than personalised service. Nosotros will be able to share, but on their terms.
Julian Assange and the motion that has been ignited by WikiLeaks is the nearly radical version of the alternative: a complimentary, egalitarian, open and public web. The fate of this motility will exist a sign of things to come. If information technology tin can command broad support, then the open web has a hazard to remain a mainstream force. If, notwithstanding, information technology becomes little more than a guerrilla campaign, and so the open web could be pushed to the margins, along with national public radio.
By 2035, the spider web, as a single infinite largely made upwardly of webpages accessed on computers, will be long gone.
Equally the web goes mobile, those who pay more will get faster admission. We will be sharing videos, simulations, experiences and environments, on a multiplicity of devices to which we'll pay as much attention every bit a light switch.
Yet, many of the big changes of the next 25 years volition come from unknowns working in their bedrooms and garages. And by 2035 we will be talking nigh the coming of breakthrough computing, which will accept us beyond the earth of binary, digital computing, on and off, blackness and white, 0s and 1s.
The small town of Waterloo, Ontario, which is home to the Perimeter Plant, funded by the founder of BlackBerry, currently houses the largest collection of theoretical physicists in the world.
The bedrooms of Waterloo are where the next web may well be made.
Charles Leadbeater, author and social entrepreneur
12 Style: 'Engineering creates smarter apparel'
Way is such an important part of the manner in which we communicate our identity to others, and for a very long time information technology's meant clothes: the textile garments on our body. But in the coming decades, I think there'll be much more emphasis on other manifestations of fashion and different means of communicating with each other, different means of creating a sense of belonging and of making united states feel great near ourselves.
We're already designing our identities online – manipulating imagery to tell a story about ourselves. Instead of coming together in the street or in a bar and having a conversation and looking at what each other is wearing, we're communicating in some depth through these new channels. With wear, I think it's possible that we'll see a polarisation between items that are very practical and those that are very much almost display – and peradventure these are not things that you own but that you infringe or share.
Technology is already being used to create habiliment that fits better and is smarter; it is able to transmit a degree of information back to you. This is partly driven past client need and the desire to know where clothing comes from – so we'll encounter tags on garments that tell you where every office of it was made, and some of this, I suspect, will be legislation-driven, as well, for similar reasons, peculiarly every bit resources become scarcer and it becomes increasingly important to recognise water and carbon footprints.
However, information technology's not only an issue of functionality. Fashion's gone through a big cycle in the last 25 years – from being something that was treasured and cherished to being something that felt dispensable, considering of a drop in prices. In fact, nosotros've completely inverse our relationship towards clothes and there's a real feeling among designers who I work with that they're trying to work back into their designs an element of emotional content.
I think at that place's definitely a place for engineering science in creating a dialogue with you through your clothes.
Dilys Williams, designer and the director for sustainable fashion at the London College of Fashion
13 Nature: 'We'll redefine the wild'
We all want to alive in a world where species such as tigers, the bully whales, orchids and coral reefs can persist and thrive and I am sure that the commitment that people have to maintaining the spectacle and diversity of life will continue. Over the past 50 years or and so, in that location has been growing support for nature conservation. When we sympathize the causes of species losses, good conservation actions can and do reverse the trends.
But information technology is going to get much harder. The human population has roughly doubled since the 1960s and will increase past another third by 2030. Demands for nutrient, h2o and energy will increase, inevitably in contest with other species. People already use up to forty% of the earth'southward primary production (energy) and this must increment, with important consequences for nature.
In the UK, some familiar species will become scarcer every bit our rare habitats (mires, bogs and moorlands) are lost. Nosotros will exist seeing the effects from gradual warming that will let more continental species to alive here, and in our towns and cities we'll probably have more species that accept become adapted to living aslope people.
We tin conserve species when nosotros really try, and so I'm confident that the charismatic mega animal and flora will mostly still persist in 2035, but they will exist increasingly restricted to highly managed and protected areas. The survivors volition be those that cope well with people and those we intendance about enough to save. Increasingly, we won't be living equally a part of nature but aslope information technology, and we'll have redefined what we mean by the wild and wilderness.
Crucially, we are still rapidly losing overall biodiversity, including soil micro-organisms, plankton in the oceans, pollinators and the remaining tropical and temperate forests. These underpin productive soils, make clean water, climate regulation and illness-resistance. We have these vital services from biodiversity and ecosystems for granted, care for them recklessly and don't include them in any kind of national accounting.
Georgina Mace, professor of conservation science and director of the Natural Environment Research Council'southward Centre for Population Biology, Imperial Higher London
14 Architecture: What constitutes a 'city' will alter
In 2035, nigh of humanity will live in favelas. This will non be entirely wonderful, as many people will live in very poor housing, but it will take its skillful side. It volition mean that cities will consist of series of small units organised, at best, by the people who know what is best for themselves and, at worst, by local crime bosses.
Cities will be besides big and complex for any single power to sympathise and manage them. They already are, in fact. The discussion "city" volition lose some of its meaning: it volition make less and less sense to draw agglomerations of tens of millions of people as if they were one place, with ane identity. If electric current dreams of urban agriculture come up true, the distinction between boondocks and state will blur. Attempts at control won't be abandoned, however, meaning that foreign bubbles of luxury will appear, like shopping malls and office parks. To be optimistic, the human genius for inventing social structures will mean that new forms of settlement we can't quite imagine will begin to emerge.
All this assumes that ecology catastrophe doesn't drive us into caves. Nor does it describe what will happen in Britain, with a roughly stable population and a planning policy dedicated to preserving the status quo as much equally possible. Britain in 25 years' time may look much every bit it does at present, which is not hugely different from 25 years agone. Rowan Moore, Observer compages contributor
15 Sport: 'Broadcasts will use holograms'
Globalisation in sport will keep: it's a trend we've seen by the choice of Rio for the 2016 Olympics and Qatar for the 2022 World Cup. This will mean changes to traditional sporting calendars in recognition of the demands of climate and time zones beyond the planet.
Sport will take to respond to new technologies, the speed at which we process data and apparent reductions in attention span. Shorter formats, such as Twenty20 cricket and rugby sevens, could aid the development of traditional sports in new territories.
The demands of Idiot box volition grow, as will technology'due south role in umpiring and consuming sport. Electronics companies are already planning broadcasts using live holograms. I don't think we'll see an acceptance of operation-enhancing drugs: the trend has been towards goose egg tolerance and long may information technology remain so.
Mike Lee, chairman of Vero Communications and ex-manager of communications for London's 2012 Olympic bid
16 Transport: 'There will be more automated cars'
It's non difficult to predict how our ship infrastructure will expect in 25 years' time – it tin can accept decades to construct a loftier-speed track line or a state highway, and then we know now what'due south in shop. But there will exist radical changes in how we retrieve virtually send. The technology of information and communication networks is changing rapidly and cyberspace and mobile developments are helping make our journeys more than seamless. Queues at St Pancras station or Heathrow airdrome when the infrastructure can't cope for any reason should get a thing of the past, but these challenges, while they might appear trivial, are significant because it's not easy to organise big-scale information systems.
The instinct to travel is innate within the states, just we will have to do it in a more carbon-efficient way. It's hard to be precise, but I call up we'll be cycling and walking more; in crowded urban areas we may see travelators – which we see in airports already – and more scooters. There volition be more automated cars, like the ones Google has recently been testing. These driverless cars will exist safer, simply when accidents practise happen, they may be on the scale of airline disasters. Personal jetpacks will, I think, remain a niche choice.
Frank Kelly, professor of the mathematics of systems at Cambridge University, and former chief scientific adviser to the DfT
17 Health: 'We'll feel less healthy'
Health systems are generally quite conservative. That'southward why the more radical forecasts of the recent past haven't quite materialised. Contrary to past predictions, we don't behave smart cards packed with health data; most treatments aren't genetically tailored; and wellness tourism to Bangalore remains low. But for all that, health is fix to undergo a slow just steady revolution. Life expectancy is ascension virtually three months each year, but we'll experience less healthy, partly considering we'll be more than enlightened of the many things that are, or could be, going wrong, and partly because more of us will be living with a long-term condition.
Nosotros'll spend more on wellness but besides want stronger activity to influence health. The US Congressional Upkeep Office forecasts that US health spending will ascension from 17% of the economy today to 25% in 2025 and 49% in 2082. Their forecasts may be designed to stupor but they comprise an of import grain of truth. Spending on wellness and jobs in wellness is bound to abound.
Some of that spending volition go on the problems of prosperity – obesity, alcohol consumption and injuries from farthermost sports. Currently fashionable ideas of "nudge" will have turned out to be far as well weak to change behaviours. Instead, we'll be more in the realms of "shove" and "push", with cities trying to reshape whole environments to encourage people to walk and bicycle.
Past 2030, mental health may at last be treated on a par with physical health. Medicine may have plant smart drugs for some conditions but the biggest touch on may exist accomplished from lower-tech deportment, such as meditation in schools or brain gyms for pensioners.
Healthcare will wait more than like education. Your GP will prescribe you a short course on managing your diabetes or heart condition, and when you get dwelling house in that location'll be an e-tutor to help y'all and a vast array of information most your condition.
Almost every serious observer of health systems believes that the great general hospitals are already anachronistic, just because hospitals are where and then much of the ability lies, and so much of the public attachment, information technology would be a brave forecaster who suggested their imminent demise.
Geoff Mulgan, main executive of the Young Foundation
xviii Religion: 'Secularists volition flatter to deceive'
Over the next two and a one-half decades, it is quite possible that those Brits who follow a organized religion volition keep both to autumn in number and also go more orthodox or fundamentalist. Similarly, organised religions volition increasingly work together to counter what they run into as greater threats to their interests – creeping agnosticism and secularity.
Some other 10 years of failure past the Anglican church to face downward the African-led traditionalists over women bishops and gay clerics could open the question of disestablishment of the Church of England. The country's politicians, including an increasingly gay-friendly Tory political party, may find information technology hard to see how land institutions tin can continue to be associated with an image of sexism and homophobia.
I predict an increase in debate around the tension betwixt a secular agenda which says information technology is merely seeking to remove religious privilege, end discrimination and separate church building and state, and organised orthodox religion which counterclaims that this would amount to driving religious voices from the public square.
Despite ii of the three political party leaders existence professed atheists, the secular tendency in this land still flatters to deceive. There is, at present, no organised, non-religious, rationalist motion. In contrast, the forces of organised religion are better resourced, more organised and more politically influential than ever earlier.
Dr Evan Harris, author of a secularist manifesto
19 Theatre: 'Cuts could forcefulness a new political fringe'
The theatre will weather the contempo cuts. Some companies volition shut and the repertoire of others will exist safe and cautious; the art form will emerge robust in a decade or and so. The cuts may force more immature people outside the existing structures back to an unsubsidised fringe and this may brood different types of work that will challenge the subsidised sector.
Student marches will get more frequent and this mobilisation may brood a more politicised generation of theatre artists. Nosotros will see sometime forms from the 1960s re-emerge (similar agit prop) and new forms will be generated to communicate ideology and politics.
More women volition emerge equally directors, writers and producers. This change is already visible at the flagship subsidised house, the National Theatre, where the repertoire for bigger theatres like the Lyttelton already includes directors like Marianne Elliott and Josie Rourke, and presently the Cottesloe will starting time to encompass the younger generation – Polly Findlay and Lyndsey Turner.
Katie Mitchell, theatre director
20 Storytelling: 'Eventually at that place'll exist a Twitter classic'
Are yous reading fewer books? I am and reading books is sort of my job. Information technology'south just that with the multifarious delights of the internet, spending 20 hours in the company of one writer and one story needs motivation. It's worth doing, of course; like do, its benefits are many and its pleasures great. And withal everyone I know is doing it less. And I can't see that that trend will reverse.
That'due south the bad news. 20-five years from now, we'll exist reading fewer books for pleasure. But authors shouldn't fret too much; e-readers volition arrive easier to impulse-purchase books at 4am even if we never read past the first 100 pages.
And stories aren't condign less popular – they're everywhere, from adverts to webcomics to fictional tweets – nosotros're just beginning to explore the exciting possibilities of spider web-native literature, stories that really exploit the fractal, hypertextual way we utilise the internet.
My approximate is that, in 2035, stories volition exist ubiquitous. There'll be a tube-based soap opera to melody your iPod to during your commute, a tale (incorporating on-auction brands) to enjoy via augmented reality in the supermarket. Your employer will ransom you with stories to focus on your task.
Nearly won't be great, simply then most of everything isn't great – and eventually there'll be a Twitter-based classic.
Naomi Alderman, novelist and games writer
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2011/jan/02/25-predictions-25-years
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